Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 October 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 137 (S19W05) produced an M2/1n flare and associated CME at 03/0221Z. This region has shown little change over the past 24 hours, however, there was indication of a delta configuration developing in the trailing spot. Region 134 (N14W42) exhibited considerable decay. No other significant changes observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 137 is the most likely candidate for M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm levels. A CME was observed to pass the ACE spacecraft at around 02/2200Z. Though it was a relatively modest shock, several extended periods of southward IMF Bz ensued, creating the minor to major storm periods. The storm is assumed to be associated to the CME activity observed early on 30 Sep.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels through the next three days. A CME was observed early today in association with the M2 flare in Region 137. Though most of the material appeared southward directed, we may experience some minor effects.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Oct 146
  Predicted   04 Oct-06 Oct  145/150/160
  90 Day Mean        03 Oct 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct  031/044
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Oct  025/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  018/015-015/012-015/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%35%40%
Minor storm25%15%20%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%45%
Minor storm30%20%25%
Major-severe storm15%10%10%

All times in UTC

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