Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 November 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 198 (S18E55) produced an M2/Sf at 1454 UTC. Region 198 has grown significantly in penumbral coverage in the last 24 hours. Some weak mixing appears to be visible but better magnetic resolution, as the region rotates further onto the visible disk, is needed to clarify this. Region 191 (S18W41) has been relatively stable since yesterday, producing only minor C-class activity. Region 195 (S17E28) has simplified to a beta magnetic configuration and produced little activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 191 and Region 198 have good M-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. NASA/ACE spacecraft indicates the possible development of a transient shock. A sharp rise in low energy protons (EPAM instrument) was observed early on 17 November to near 10^4 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Transient shock effects are possible early in the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
Class M55%55%55%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Nov 185
  Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov  190/180/175
  90 Day Mean        17 Nov 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  003/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Nov  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  012/010-010/010-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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