Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 November 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 198
(S18E55) produced an M2/Sf at 1454 UTC. Region 198 has grown
significantly in penumbral coverage in the last 24 hours. Some weak
mixing appears to be visible but better magnetic resolution, as the
region rotates further onto the visible disk, is needed to clarify
this. Region 191 (S18W41) has been relatively stable since
yesterday, producing only minor C-class activity. Region 195
(S17E28) has simplified to a beta magnetic configuration and
produced little activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 191 and Region 198 have good M-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. NASA/ACE
spacecraft indicates the possible development of a transient shock.
A sharp rise in low energy protons (EPAM instrument) was observed
early on 17 November to near 10^4 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Transient shock effects are
possible early in the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 185 Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 190/180/175 90 Day Mean 17 Nov 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 003/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 012/010-010/010-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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