Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 November 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity consisted of occasional C-class flares from Region
198 (S17W84) and Region 207 (S19E59). The largest event of the day
was a C8/Sf at 1136 UTC from Region 198. Region 198 has nearly
rotated off the west limb. Region 207 exhibited frequent plage
brightenings throughout the period and is now the dominant region on
the solar disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
past 24 hours. Solar wind data show the continuation of enhanced
solar wind speed, and a weak but steadily southward orientation of
the interplanetary magnetic field.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods during the
next 24 hours as the current disturbance subsides. Predominantly
unsettled conditions are expected on the second and third days.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Nov 140 Predicted 29 Nov-01 Dec 140/140/145 90 Day Mean 28 Nov 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov 013/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 012/015-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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