Viewing archive of Friday, 21 February 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 290 (N17E05) continues in a slow growth phase and produced several minor C-class events, the largest being an impulsive C4 flare at 21/1950Z. This moderately complex region may have a weak delta configuration in the leader spots. Region 289 (N09W90) remains quite active as it rotates around the west limb. This region has also been in a slow growth phase since its development on the visible disk on 18 Feb. New Region 291 was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels, though there is a small chance for an M-class flare from Region 290.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The disturbed periods are due to a declining high speed solar wind stream. This high speed stream began the period near 700 km/s, but declined slowly throughout the day to 550 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods over the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Feb 120
  Predicted   22 Feb-24 Feb  120/125/125
  90 Day Mean        21 Feb 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  012/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Feb  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  010/012-005/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%25%
Minor storm10%05%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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