Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 March 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 314 (S13W80)
produced an M1/1f flare at 1131 UTC. The group also produced a C9/Sf
at 0231 UTC. The region appears to be in a slow decay phase as it
crosses the west limb. New Region 317 (N04E03) emerged on the disk
today as a small bipolar sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next 24 hours due to possible additional flare
activity from Region 314. Conditions should decline to low levels
for the second and third day as Region 314 will be behind west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels, with a minor
storm period at high latitudes from 0900-1200 UTC. An increase in
solar wind speed was observed at about 0420 UTC and may be an
indication of the passage of the flank of the CME that was
associated with the X1 flare observed at 18/1200 UTC. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next 24 hours as the current
activity persists. A gradual decline to unsettled levels is expected
for the seconds and third days.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| Class M | 40% | 20% | 05% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Mar 097 Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 20 Mar 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 009/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 020/020-015/015-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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