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Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 April 2003

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. There were only two minor B-class flares during the past 24 hours. The two spotted regions on the disk were small, quiet, and stable. A five degree filament near N15W51 disappeared between 1157 and 1222 UTC. An 11 degree filament near N21E29 disappeared sometime between 15/2341 and 16/1542 UTC. There did not appear to be any CME observed by SOHO/LASCO that could be associated with either of these events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is likely to be a slow increase in background levels with the addition of new regions which are now visible in GOES Solar x-ray imagery behind East limb at N20.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active during the past 24 hours with a minor to major storm period from 0900-1200 UTC and a minor storm period at high latitudes from 1800-2100 UTC. The coronal-hole induced high speed solar wind flow continues. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active for the next 24 hours as the current disturbance persists. A decline to unsettled to active is expected on the second day with a return to unsettled levels by the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Apr 099
  Predicted   17 Apr-19 Apr  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        16 Apr 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr  013/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Apr  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr  020/020-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%35%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%35%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Iqaluit, NU
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Reykjavik
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-51nT)
A transequatorial coronal hole was detected in an earth-facing position on Monday, 24 March 2025

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Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth

The anticipated strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch never materialized as the coronal mass ejection that was supposed to arrive early yesterday didn't arrive until today just past midnight UTC. The impact was very lackluster with the Bt (total strength of the IMF) increasing to a moderate 15nT at best and the solar wind speed reaching just 420km/s. A far cry from the anticipated 700 to 800km/s. That once again goes to show how hard it is to forecast space weather events and any resulting geomagnetic conditions. We remain under the influence of the CME and high latitude sky watchers should remain alert for some nice aurora displays but middle latitude sky watchers will probably have to wait for the next opportunity. 

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