Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 April 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Solar activity has been very low. There was a single
minor B-class event during the past 24 hours. A new Region 336
(N12E75) was numbered today. All spotted regions on the disk
continue to be small, quiet, and stable. There has been a slow
increase in background levels due to the arrival of the new region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. The background levels are likely to continue to increase
slightly with the addition of regions which are now visible in GOES
Solar x-ray imagery behind East limb at N20 and S25.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active during the past
24 hours with a minor storm period from 0300-0900 UTC in the mid
latitudes, and a minor storm period at high latitudes from both
0300-1200 UTC and 1500-1800 UTC. The coronal-hole induced high speed
solar wind flow continues. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active but decreasing to unsettled within the
next 24 hours as the current disturbance transitions out of
geoeffective range. Continued unsettled levels are expected for days
two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Apr to 20 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Apr 101 Predicted 18 Apr-20 Apr 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 17 Apr 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Apr 013/031 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Apr 029/033 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 015/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Apr to 20 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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