Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 May 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 360 (at S04 W19) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar actvity is expected to be very low to low for the next 24 hours. Two new active regions on the east limb (returning Regions 336 at latitude N13 and 337 at S12) may become the source of isolated C-class flares in the following days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels due to high speed solar wind streams from a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next day, falling off to unsettled to active on days two and three. The coronal hole causing high speed solar wind streams is rotating out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
Class M10%10%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 May 096
  Predicted   15 May-17 May  105/110/115
  90 Day Mean        14 May 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  024/027
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 May  025/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  020/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%25%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
VII. Comments The GOES 10 energetic proton detectors are showing intermittent, high noise levels in the higher energy proton channels (greater than about 80 MeV). This problem was first noticed in data taken April 26, 2003. To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. Beginning 1500 UT on May 15, GOES-8 will once again become the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray sensor, and energetic particle sensor. This short-term solution (approximately 2 - 3 months) will be in place until we define and implement a permanent fix. A more detailed explanation can be found at: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.

All times in UTC

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