Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 May 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May

Class M	10%	15%	20%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       15 May 099
  Predicted   16 May-18 May  105/110/120
  90 Day Mean        15 May 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  017/027
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 May  015/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  010/015-010/015-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	25%	25%	25%
Minor storm	15%	10%	10%
Major-severe storm	05%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	35%	35%	35%
Minor storm	15%	15%	15%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	05%

VII. Comments The GOES 10 energetic proton detectors are showing intermittent, high noise levels in the higher energy proton channels (greater than about 80 MeV). This problem was first noticed in data taken April 26, 2003. To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. As of 1500 UT on May 15, GOES-8 became the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray sensor, and energetic particle sensor. This short-term solution (approximately 2 - 3 months) will be in place until we define and implement a permanent fix. A more detailed explanation can be found at: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page