Viewing archive of Friday, 16 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Solar activity has been very low. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with possible increase in activity over the next few days due
to returning regions emerging from the east limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels. Solar
wind velocity continues to decrease as the previous coronal hole
rotates across the west limb. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled levels for the next two days, with
active conditions possible on day three of the period due to a
coronal hole passing into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
Class M | 05% | 10% | 10% |
Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 103
Predicted 17 May-19 May 110/115/120
90 Day Mean 16 May 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 019/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 010/012-010/012-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
VII. Comments
The GOES 10 energetic proton detectors are showing intermittent, high noise levels in the higher energy proton channels (greater than about 80 MeV). This problem was first noticed in data taken April 26, 2003. To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. As of 1500 UT on May 15, GOES-8 became the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray sensor, and energetic particle sensor. This short-term solution (approximately 2 - 3 months) will be in place until we define and implement a permanent fix. A more detailed explanation can be found at: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
All times in UTC
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