Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 June 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been very high. Region 375 (N12W46) produced major flare activity including an X1.7 event at 09/2139 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep and was optically correlated with SXI imagery. The region also produced numerous M-class flares including an M5.1/2n flare at 10/1112 UTC, and an M5.6/Sf flare at 10/1815 UTC. Region 375 continued its rapid growth over the period (an increase to 1200 millionths), and maintains its delta magnetic configuration. Region 380 (S15E29) increased in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma-delta configuration. An optically uncorrelated Type IV radio sweep was observed at 0014 UTC. LASCO imagery observed a partial-halo CME beginning at 10/0606 UTC, most likely associated with former Region 365 (S07,L=182) on the back side of the sun. New Region 382 (S18W17) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Regions 375 and 380 both remain capable of producing a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. This activity is due to continued coronal hole high speed stream effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with isolated periods of minor storm conditions through day one. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for days two and three as solar wind speeds are expected to decrease.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jun to 13 Jun
Class M80%70%60%
Class X40%20%20%
Proton20%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Jun 177
  Predicted   11 Jun-13 Jun  155/150/145
  90 Day Mean        10 Jun 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun  020/028
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Jun  025/027
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun  015/020-010/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun to 13 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm30%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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