Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 June 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Solar activity has been very high. Region 375 (N12W46)
produced major flare activity including an X1.7 event at 09/2139 UTC
with an associated Type II radio sweep and was optically correlated
with SXI imagery. The region also produced numerous M-class flares
including an M5.1/2n flare at 10/1112 UTC, and an M5.6/Sf flare at
10/1815 UTC. Region 375 continued its rapid growth over the period
(an increase to 1200 millionths), and maintains its delta magnetic
configuration. Region 380 (S15E29) increased in magnetic complexity
to a beta-gamma-delta configuration. An optically uncorrelated Type
IV radio sweep was observed at 0014 UTC. LASCO imagery observed a
partial-halo CME beginning at 10/0606 UTC, most likely associated
with former Region 365 (S07,L=182) on the back side of the sun. New
Region 382 (S18W17) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 375 and 380 both remain capable of
producing a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels.
This activity is due to continued coronal hole high speed stream
effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated periods of minor
storm conditions through day one. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected for days two and three as solar wind speeds are expected to
decrease.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jun to 13 Jun
Class M | 80% | 70% | 60% |
Class X | 40% | 20% | 20% |
Proton | 20% | 10% | 10% |
PCAF | yellow
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jun 177
Predicted 11 Jun-13 Jun 155/150/145
90 Day Mean 10 Jun 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun 020/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun 025/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 015/020-010/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun to 13 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 15% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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