Viewing archive of Monday, 9 June 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 375 (N12W32) produced an M4/1n event at 09/1128 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep. The SOHO/LASCO imagery also observed a CME which accompanied this event. The CME appears to be directed toward the northwest and not earthbound. Region 375 continues to become more magnetically complex and maintains its delta magnetic configuration. This region has been responsible for the majority of events of this period. However, Region 380 (S14E42) produced several C-class events and has increased in both white light area and sunspot count since yesterday. New Region 381 (S18E19) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 375 and 380 both remain capable of producing a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active. This activity is a result of continued coronal hole effects and the elevated solar wind speeds. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily unsettled to active with isolated periods of minor storm conditions for 10 and 11 June. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 12 June as solar wind speeds should begin to decrease.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
Class M70%70%70%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Jun 158
  Predicted   10 Jun-12 Jun  155/155/150
  90 Day Mean        09 Jun 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun  021/027
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jun  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun  020/025-015/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%20%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%35%30%
Minor storm30%30%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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