Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 February 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 057 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Today's largest flare was a B7/Sf at 0946 UTC from Region 290 (N18W60). A few additional B-class flares were observed, including one from the new active region on the east limb at S18.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. An interval of weakly to moderately negative interplanetary Bz magnetic field (-5 to -10 nT) was observed from 0300-0600 UTC and led to active levels from 0600-1200 UTC. Solar wind data also showed a density enhancement and magnetic field enhancement beginning at 1800 UTC, accompanied by a discontinuous shift in the spiral angle from an away sector to a towards sector, suggesting a likely solar sector boundary crossing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next three days, with a slight chance for some isolated active periods. The somewhat enhanced levels of activity are expected because of favorably positioned solar coronal holes.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Feb 109
  Predicted   27 Feb-01 Mar  115/120/120
  90 Day Mean        26 Feb 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb  002/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Feb  011/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar  012/012-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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