Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 March 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
Solar activity decreased to very low levels. The
largest flare of the period was a B9.1/Sf from Region 321 (N05E65)
that occurred at 25/1636Z. This region underwent penumbral growth
during the period. Region 319 (N13E27) experienced slight
development during the period and produced a lone B-class flare
early in the day. A small 6 degree disappearing filament was
observed between 25/1700 and 1800Z which was centered at N38W10.
Regions 322 (N19W72) and 323 (S07E55) were newly assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. There is a slight chance of an isolated M-class event
from region 321.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels until the onset of a favorably
positioned recurrent coronal hole. The coronal hole is expected to
become geoeffective early on the first day of the forecast period.
Predominantly active conditions are anticipated and minor storm to
major storm periods are possible through the first two days of the
interval. Unsettled to active conditions are expected by day three.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 109 Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 115/125/135 90 Day Mean 25 Mar 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 005/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 020/020-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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