Viewing archive of Monday, 21 April 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Apr 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 338
(N18W05) produced an M2/1n flare at 21/1307Z. Considerable radio
emissions were associated with this flare, including a Type II (1200
km/s) and Type IV sweep, and a 300 sfu tenflare. A partial halo CME
was also noted from LASCO imagery. This beta-gamma region is in a
slow growth phase with a moderate increase in the number of
sunspots visible over the past 24 hours. Region 337 (S13E43) is the
largest and most complex region on the visible disk, and now
contains a weak delta configuration in the 350 millionths of white
light areal coverage. Only minor C-class flares have been observed
so far from this region. Minor C-class activity was also observed in
Region 339 (N16W58). New Regions 340 (S04E55), and 341 (S10E74),
were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is possible from Regions 337
or 338.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled to active levels
with isolated high latitude minor storm periods. A high speed solar
wind stream, with winds ranging from 520 - 600 km/s, continues to
buffet the geomagnetic field. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels through day one. Minor
storm periods are possible on days two and three with the
anticipated arrival of the CME from today's M2 flare.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Apr to 24 Apr
Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Apr 126
Predicted 22 Apr-24 Apr 135/140/145
90 Day Mean 21 Apr 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Apr 012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Apr 015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr 012/015-020/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Apr to 24 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 30% | 40% | 40% |
Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 40% | 50% | 50% |
Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 30% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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