Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 May 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 357 (S16W20) produced the only C-class flare of the period - a C1 flare at 18/1057Z. This region has shown little change over the past 24 hours, maintaining a simple beta configuration. Region 362 (S11E37) appeared to develop some complexity early in the period, but has since stabilized. New Region 363 (S08W04) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Regions 357 and 362 have potential for low C-class activity. Activity is expected to increase later in the week with the return of a zone of active longitudes that contained old Regions 345 (S17, L=167), 348 (S35, L=149), and 349 (S14, L=153).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Slightly enhanced solar wind conditions occurred late in the period and produced the unsettled conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active. Increased solar wind speed, associated with a favorably positioned coronal hole will cause occasional disturbed periods through day two.
III. Event Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 May 109
  Predicted   19 May-21 May  115/120/130
  90 Day Mean        18 May 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 May  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 May  007/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May  015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%30%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/12/08X2.2
Last M-flare2024/12/23M8.9
Last geomagnetic storm2024/12/17Kp5+ (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
November 2024152.5 -13.9
December 2024106.6 -45.9
Last 30 days116.1 -41.8

This day in history*

Solar flares
12024M8.9
22015M6.75
31998M3.34
42013M2.36
52013M1.97
DstG
12002-67
22000-62G2
31989-60
42014-57
51982-53G1
*since 1994

Social networks