Viewing archive of Monday, 19 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. The most noteworthy
activity this period was a long duration B-class flare, associated
with a filament eruption and CME from near N30E30 at 19/0930Z. The
CME does not appear to have an earthward trajectory. Region 362
(S11E23) continues to exhibit some complexity, but no new growth was
noted and the region was stable. New Region 364 (S26W29) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Region 362.
New Regions rotating on the SE limb may increase activity levels
late in the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with occasional active
periods over the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 115 Predicted 20 May-22 May 120/130/135 90 Day Mean 19 May 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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