Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 June 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of
the day was a long duration C3 flare that originated from beyond the
southeast limb at 1457Z. Other minor C-class activity was
predominantly from Region 375 (N12, L=22) beyond the northwest limb.
Region 380 (S17W36) continues to decay in area coverage and is now
at 180 millionths. New Region 385 (N30E30) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The region beyond the southeast limb is expected to
rotate onto the visible disk on day one and have isolated M-class
potential. This region is likely old region 365 which was very
active during its last rotation.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. The
geomagnetic field has been disturbed by a combination of high speed
flow effects and weak shocks that were observed yesterday and today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active conditions with isolated minor
storming possible early on day one. Activity on day two is expected
to be quiet to unsettled. Late on day three a coronal hole is due
to rotate into a geoeffective position with unsettled to active
conditions expected.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| Class M | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 129 Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 130/125/125 90 Day Mean 15 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 018/032 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 020/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 015/015-012/015-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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