Viewing archive of Monday, 16 June 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was very high. New Region 386 (S07E71)
produced an X1/Sf flare at 15/2356 UTC with an associated Type II
(841 km/s) and Type IV radio sweep. SOHO/LACSO imagery indicates a
full halo CME, however the majority of the ejecta was off to the
east. Region 386 currently indicates a beta magnetic configuration
but its proximity to the east limb prevents a detailed analysis of
the magnetic complexity. Region 380 (S16W51) has slowed its rate of
decay and has developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New
Region 386 was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 386 is expected to produce M-class
and possibly X-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. The
source of the minor storm conditions may be associated with the
Boulder magnetometer scaling problem (see comment in VII). Solar
wind speed was in gradual decay from a peak near 600 km/s early in
the day to a minimum of 450 km/s by 1600UTC. Wind speed then
increased to 550 km/s by the end of the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with a chance of isolated minor storm
levels. Late on day one or early on day two, weak CME shock effects
are possible from the X1 event mentioned in IA. A coronal hole high
speed flow is expected late on day two and day three with isolated
minor storm levels possible.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jun 123 Predicted 17 Jun-19 Jun 125/125/120 90 Day Mean 16 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun 013/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun 014/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 012/015-020/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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