Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 June 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C2 flare at 0222 UTC from Region 386 (S07E58). This region continues to increase in area coverage as it rotates further onto the visible disk. Magnetic analysis indicates a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 380 (S15W64) continues a its gradual decay in area and now has a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels with a chance of isolated high level activity. Region 386 has the potential for major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. A six-hour period of southward Bz, from 06 - 09 UTC combined with elevated solar wind speed near 510 km/s produced minor and major storm levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. A weak CME shock is possible late on day one with isolated minor storm levels possible. High speed stream effects are expected on day two and day three with minor storm levels possible.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
Class M40%40%40%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton30%20%20%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Jun 122
  Predicted   18 Jun-20 Jun  125/120/120
  90 Day Mean        17 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun  020/032
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Jun  040/050
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  020/030-020/030-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%40%40%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%50%50%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%15%15%
VII Comment: K-Indices: On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the H-trace on the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June. GOES Protons: To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. Beginning 1700 UTC on June 18, GOES 11 (105W) will become the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.

All times in UTC

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