Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 June 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare
was a C2 flare at 0222 UTC from Region 386 (S07E58). This region
continues to increase in area coverage as it rotates further onto
the visible disk. Magnetic analysis indicates a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. Region 380 (S15W64) continues a its gradual
decay in area and now has a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with a chance of isolated high level
activity. Region 386 has the potential for major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. A
six-hour period of southward Bz, from 06 - 09 UTC combined with
elevated solar wind speed near 510 km/s produced minor and major
storm levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. A weak CME shock
is possible late on day one with isolated minor storm levels
possible. High speed stream effects are expected on day two and day
three with minor storm levels possible.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Proton | 30% | 20% | 20% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jun 122
Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 125/120/120
90 Day Mean 17 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 020/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 040/050
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 020/030-020/030-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 35% | 40% | 40% |
Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 40% | 50% | 50% |
Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
VII Comment:
K-Indices:
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the H-trace on the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.
GOES Protons:
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. Beginning 1700 UTC on June 18, GOES 11 (105W) will become the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
All times in UTC
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