Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 June 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. An M1.5 flare
occurred at 0609Z on the southeast limb. Region 380 (S16W25) has
decreased in area coverage and has simplified to a beta magnetic
configuration. An eleven degree disappearing solar filament was
observed lifting off at near N27W09 at 13/2217Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The region from beyond the southeast limb is likely to
rotate onto the visible disk on day one and have M-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. The onset
of the expected coronal hole was marked by a co-rotating interacting
region with solar wind speed increasing to near 600 km/s and a 12
hour period of minor storm levels. Late in the period indications
of a possible shock passage at the NASA/ACE spacecraft coincided
with a major storm period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Isolated minor
storm levels are expected on day one due to high speed flow and CME
shock effects. By day two activity is expected to be at unsettled
to active levels.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| Class M | 45% | 40% | 35% |
| Class X | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jun 134 Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 14 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 035/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 020/025-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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