Viewing archive of Monday, 24 March 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Newly numbered
Region 321 (N05E78) produced the largest flare of the period, a C2.0
x-ray flare (correlated using SXI imagery) occurring at 24/0431Z.
This region is too close to the east limb to ascertain the overall
complexity of the magnetic structure or the regions spot
distribution. The remainder of the active regions were mostly
quiescent throughout the period. Region 320 (N05E07) was also
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
An isolated active period was observed at high latitudes between
24/0600 and 0900Z. The greater than 2 electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels for the first day of the
interval. Days two and three should see predominantly active
conditions with occasional periods of minor storm levels due to an
increase in the solar wind speed, resulting from a favorably
positioned recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Mar 098 Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 105/110/120 90 Day Mean 24 Mar 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 013/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 015/015-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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