Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Monday, 24 March 2003

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Newly numbered Region 321 (N05E78) produced the largest flare of the period, a C2.0 x-ray flare (correlated using SXI imagery) occurring at 24/0431Z. This region is too close to the east limb to ascertain the overall complexity of the magnetic structure or the regions spot distribution. The remainder of the active regions were mostly quiescent throughout the period. Region 320 (N05E07) was also numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. An isolated active period was observed at high latitudes between 24/0600 and 0900Z. The greater than 2 electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for the first day of the interval. Days two and three should see predominantly active conditions with occasional periods of minor storm levels due to an increase in the solar wind speed, resulting from a favorably positioned recurrent coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar

Class M	15%	15%	15%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       24 Mar 098
  Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar  105/110/120
  90 Day Mean        24 Mar 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  013/024
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Mar  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  015/015-020/020-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	20%	35%	25%
Minor storm	10%	20%	15%
Major-severe storm	05%	10%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	25%	35%	30%
Minor storm	15%	25%	20%
Major-severe storm	10%	15%	10%

All times in UTC

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G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 20:16 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Reykjavik
Tromsø

The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (614.9 km/sec.)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (19.45nT), the direction is North (13.39nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-65nT)

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