Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 March 2003

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 064 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several B-class subflares were observed mostly from Regions 296 (N11E08), 301 (N22E22), and 302 (N19E50). Region 296 remains the largest sunspot group on the visible disk with near 550 millionths of white light areal coverage. Though this region has shown some decay in coverage, it is the likely source of several weak to moderate radio bursts, including a 460 sfu tenflare from a B6/Sf flare at 05/0301Z. No significant changes were observed in the remaining active regions.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be low. Isolated C-class flares are possible with a chance of an M-class flare from Region 296.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Mostly unsettled conditions prevailed early in the period in response to a waning high speed coronal hole stream. Solar wind data indicated another high speed stream onset at around 1300Z, preceded by a weak co-rotating interaction region. Solar wind speed ranged from 500 - 550 km/s for the latter half of the period and isolated active periods were observed at all latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar

Class M	20%	20%	20%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       05 Mar 149
  Predicted   06 Mar-08 Mar  150/145/145
  90 Day Mean        05 Mar 142

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar  015/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Mar  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  012/015-010/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	35%	30%	25%
Minor storm	15%	10%	05%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	40%	35%	30%
Minor storm	20%	15%	10%
Major-severe storm	10%	10%	05%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 22:46 UTC

The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (590 km/sec.)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is high (20.23nT), the direction is North (12.74nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-61nT)

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