Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 April 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 098 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest
event was a B7 flare at 08/0520Z. Region 330 (N07E10) continues a
gradual growth phase and has developed a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Regions 325(N14W77) and 330 have C-class
potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A CME shock
from the M1 event on 04 April arrived early today with a 33 nT
sudden impulse at 08/0115Z recorded on the Boulder magnetometer. Bz
reached values near minus 10 nT and solar wind velocity reached peak
values near 500 km/s. Unsettled to active levels were observed at
mid latitudes and an isolated minor storm condition on the planetary
index.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Coronal hole high speed
stream effects are expected on day two and day three of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
| Class M | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Apr 112 Predicted 09 Apr-11 Apr 105/100/095 90 Day Mean 08 Apr 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr 015/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 012/015-020/020-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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