Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 349 (S15W71)
produced a long duration C3 event at 06/0148 UTC which was visible
in the GOES Solar x-ray imagery. Region 348 (S34W68) and 349 still
maintain a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 348 and 349 are expected to continue low
C-class flares with a slight chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm conditions.
Solar wind speeds increased throughout the past 24 hours to above
700 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field Bz component was
oriented southward for extended periods. The elevated geomagnetic
activity is believed to be the result of a recurrent coronal hole.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to minor storm conditions for 07 May as the
coronal hole high speed stream continues. Quiet to unsettled
conditions should return on 08 and 09 May as a transition is made
out of the high speed solar wind flow.
III. Event Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| Class M | 60% | 50% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 129 Predicted 07 May-09 May 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 06 May 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 022/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 020/025-015/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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