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Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 May 2003

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest event was a B7 flare at 1428Z on the southwest limb. The most likely source is Region 357 (S16W99) from beyond the west limb. The remaining regions on the visible disk are small and have simple magnetic configurations.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Elevated solar wind speed resulted in an isolated period of minor storm levels during local nighttime hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels. Elevated solar wind speeds are likely to result in isolated active conditions and possibly isolated minor storm levels on day one of the period. By day three, another coronal high speed stream is expected to be in a favorable geo-effective position with active to minor storm levels possible.
III. Event Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 May 117
  Predicted   25 May-27 May  120/120/125
  90 Day Mean        24 May 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  018/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 May  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  012/015-015/020-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%40%
Minor storm10%10%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%45%55%
Minor storm15%20%30%
Major-severe storm05%10%15%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Whitehorse, YT
Fairbanks, AK, Utqiagvik, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Gillam, MB, Saskatoon, SK, Yellowknife, NT
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (10.25nT), the direction is slightly South (-8.25nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-62nT)

S1 - Minor solar radiation storm

Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions

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