Viewing archive of Friday, 23 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 362 (S11W30)
produced two flares: a C1/Sf at 22/2114Z and a B7 at 23/0830Z.
This region continues to decrease in areal coverage. Two new
regions were numbered today: Region 369 (N12E08) and Region 370
(N16E53).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 362 has the potential for C-class
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Coronal hole
high speed stream effects continues and solar wind speed remains
slightly elevated near 500 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Coronal hole high speed
stream effects are expected to continue through day one of the
period with active conditions possible. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on day two and day three.
III. Event Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 May 118 Predicted 24 May-26 May 120/125/130 90 Day Mean 23 May 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May 015/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May 017/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 015/020-012/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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