Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 May 2003
Solar activity report
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
III. Event Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 May 118 Predicted 23 May-25 May 125/130/135 90 Day Mean 22 May 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May 013/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May 025/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 020/020-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, RovaniemiArkhangelsk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
KuopioSundsvall, Umeå
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future
TamperePetrozavodsk, Syktyvkar
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