Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 April 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Solar activity increased to high levels. An abundance
of activity was observed today, most of which occurred in Region 338
(N18W71). Region 338 produced a very impulsive M7.0 x-ray flare at
26/0807Z. This region also produced an M2.1/1f flare at 26/0058Z and
an M2.1/Sn flare at 26/0306Z along with multiple C-class events.
The delta magnetic complex remains intact and penumbral coverage
appears to be oscillating with this regions flare production.
Region 344 (N16E13) has yet to produce any flare activity although
the white-light penumbral coverage and the magnetic complexity of
this region have shown rapid growth during the past 24 hours.
Yesterday, this region was a simple beta complex which has since
developed into a beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. Region 337
(S14W26) was quiescent through most of the period. Regions 347
(S20E36), 348 (S36E58), and 349 (S14E60) were newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Activity is expected to be at moderate
levels. Region 338 remains capable of producing an isolated major
flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Influences from
yesterdays favorably positioned coronal hole have waned as the solar
wind speed has dropped to approximately 400 km/s. The greater than
2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels. Minor storm
conditions are possible with the onset of a favorably positioned
coronal hole on days one and two. Elevated field levels are
possible through the interval due to weak transient passages
resulting from the flare activity of the past several days.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
Class M | 70% | 70% | 50% |
Class X | 15% | 15% | 05% |
Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Apr 144
Predicted 27 Apr-29 Apr 150/145/140
90 Day Mean 26 Apr 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr 019/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Apr 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr 020/025-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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