Viewing archive of Sunday, 29 June 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
Solar activity remained low. Region 396 (S04W38)
produced a few C-class subflares late in the period. Region 397
(N12E53) also produced C-class activity. The region is now visible
as an elongated white light group, with a large plage field.
Magnetically the region is very confused, with a mixture of leading
and trailing polarities interspersed. The limbs were quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Solar
wind speeds remain elevated, now near 700 km/s. This high speed
stream is from a large coronal hole in the western solar hemisphere.
The GOES greater than 2 MeV electron flux is again high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally active. Periods of minor storming may occur
as the high speed stream gradually abates. Unsettled conditions are
anticipated by the end of the interval.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jun 127 Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 29 Jun 1234
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 030/032 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 025/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 020/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 60% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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