Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 July 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels. A few C-class flares have occurred, all from Region 397 (N12W20).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. There still exists a fair potential for M-class flare activity from Region 397 (N12W20) and to a lesser degree, Region 400 (N04E23).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels. There is still a strong influence from a favorably positioned coronal hole, keeping the solar wind speeds elevated to around 750 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next 24 hours, falling off to quiet to active levels for day two, then returning to unsettled to minor storm levels on day three. The coronal hole currently elevating the solar wind speeds will rotate out of geoeffective position in the next 24 hours, but that will be followed on the third day by a glancing blow from a coronal mass ejection which occurred on 04 July at 1458 UTC.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
Class M65%65%65%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Jul 142
  Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul  144/148/148
  90 Day Mean        05 Jul 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  015/025
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Jul  021/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  020/020-015/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%30%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%30%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%05%10%

All times in UTC

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