Viewing archive of Friday, 4 July 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 397 (N12W10) and 400
(N04E33) produced several C-class flares during the past 24 hours.
The largest of these was a C7.2 at 04/1458 UTC from Region 400,
which was accompanied by a weak Type II radio sweep. Region 397
continues to have two small delta configurations in the trailer
portion of its group, and Region 400 continues to show steady
activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be at
moderate levels. There is a good chance for M-class flare activity
from Regions 397 and 400.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Two periods of minor storming occurred one at 04/0600 UTC and
another at 04/1200 UTC. Solar wind speeds have been sustained at
around 750 km/s throughout the last 24 hours. The greater than 2
MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly active to minor storm levels for the next
day due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. A gradual decline
to unsettled to active levels is expected on the second day.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jul 140 Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 141/144/145 90 Day Mean 04 Jul 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 014/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 025/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 020/025-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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