Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 July 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Regions 397 (N12E00) and 400 (N05E44) produced a few C-class flares during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was a C5 at 02/2222 UTC from Region 400. Region 400 was active all day and has a dominant northeast-to-southwest inversion line. Region 397 showed growth in the trailer portion of the group, leading to the formation of two small delta configurations.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. There is a good chance for M-class flare activity from Region 397. In addition, the magnetic structure of Region 400 suggests that it is likely to build shear and this should lead to frequent subflare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind speeds increased up to around 600 km/s at 02/2300 UTC, but dropped down to 500-550 km/s from 0100-1900 UTC. However, there appears to be another solar wind speed increase in progress at this time. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active for the next two days in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole. There may also be isolated periods of storm level activity. A gradual decline to unsettled to active is expected on the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jul to 06 Jul
Class M60%60%60%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Jul 132
  Predicted   04 Jul-06 Jul  135/138/141
  90 Day Mean        03 Jul 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul  011/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Jul  014/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul  020/025-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul to 06 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm15%15%10%

All times in UTC

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