Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 July 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 397 (N10E13) produced an M3/1f at 0728 UTC. The group has shown some decay of the spots in the middle portion of the group and loss of the delta configuration, but there has been some growth in the trailer spots. The magnetic classification for the group is now beta-gamma, reflecting its multiple inversion line structure. Region 400 (N04E58) has rotated more fully into view as a small, D-type region and managed to produced a C1/Sf.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there continues to be a fair chance for an isolated M-class event during the next three days from Region 397.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled during the past 24 hours. Solar wind conditions were nominal until about 1800 UTC when an increase was observed in speed and temperature and a decrease was observed in density. This might indicate the onset of the anticipated high speed solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours, and mostly active for the second and third days. The increase is expected as a result of a high speed wind stream associated with a favorably positioned coronal hole. There is a possibility for isolated storm periods, particularly at the higher latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jul to 05 Jul
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Jul 135
  Predicted   03 Jul-05 Jul  140/145/150
  90 Day Mean        02 Jul 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul  014/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Jul  012/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul  015/020-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul to 05 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%40%40%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm10%15%15%

All times in UTC

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