Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 July 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 421 (S08E54) produced an impulsive M1.3/1f flare at 29/0139Z. There appears to be a weak gamma magnetic structure in the trailing portion of the spot cluster and there was little apparent change to the penumbral structure during the period. Region 422 (N14W54) steadied in growth since yesterday and was limited to minor B and C-class flares today. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 421 has the potential to produce an isolated M-class flare
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly active to minor storm levels. A period of major storm conditions were observed at the Boulder magnetometer between 29/0300 and 0600Z. The elevated activity is in response to a recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind stream that has been ranging between 750 and 800 km/s throughout the day. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active levels through the first two days of the forecast period due to recurrent coronal hole high speed stream effects. Occasional minor storm conditions are expected and isolated major storm episodes may also be possible due to the elevated solar wind speeds. Day three should see a decrease to unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor storm intervals possible at night side locations.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
Class M35%35%35%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Jul 100
  Predicted   30 Jul-01 Aug  100/105/105
  90 Day Mean        29 Jul 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul  015/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Jul  025/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug  020/025-020/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%45%40%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm15%10%10%

All times in UTC

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