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Viewing archive of Monday, 25 August 2003

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares observed during the past 24 hours, a C1 at 24/2337 UTC from Region 436 (N07W39) and a C3/1f at 0259 UTC from Region 442 (S13E30). The C3 flare was long duration and was associated with an erupting prominence (located near S09E38). The event was followed by an associated coronal mass ejection which was observed off the southeast limb in C3 coronagraph data. New Region 445 (N04E38) was assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low for the next three days. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. Today's activity was initially at active levels in response to a high speed solar wind stream. Activity increased to minor storm levels from 0600-0900 UTC, but then backed off to mostly unsettled levels from 0900 through the end of the day. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods during the next two days as the current disturbance persists. A decline to mostly unsettled is expected on the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Aug 117
  Predicted   26 Aug-28 Aug  120/120/125
  90 Day Mean        25 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug  014/024
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Aug  020/023
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  015/015-015/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%10%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Saskatoon, SK
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Calgary, AB, Winnipeg, MB

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