Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 436 (N08W26)
produced a C1/1f flare at 24/0417Z. Region 436 has shown some weak
positive polarities in the trailing spots and some weak point
brightings. There has been no significant activity and relatively
little change in the other active regions since yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 436 has the potential for C-class
activity and a slight chance of M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. One
period of minor storm conditions was observed at 24/1500Z. At
24/0000Z solar wind speed decreased to 600 km/s and has continued a
gradual decline to 550 km/s by the end of the summary period. Bz
continues to fluctuate between +/- 6 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions on day one of the
period. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two and
day three.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Aug 116 Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 115/115/120 90 Day Mean 24 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 026/044 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 020/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 020/030-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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