Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 July 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Today's activity consisted of a few, low-level C-class flares from Region 397 (N10E26). This region is no longer growing and may even be showing a slight decaying trend. Nonetheless the group remains the largest on disk at 770 millionths and consists of highly mixed magnetic polarities including a small delta spot near the trailing part of the region. New Region 400 (N05E69) was assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there continues to be a chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 397 during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, but there was an active period from 0300-0600 UTC. Solar wind speed showed steady decline during the past 24 hours from initial values around 750 km/s to day end values around 550 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with occasional active periods for the next two days. An increase to active is expected on the third day in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Jul 131
  Predicted   02 Jul-04 Jul  130/135/135
  90 Day Mean        01 Jul 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun  014/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Jul  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul  010/015-010/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%40%
Minor storm15%15%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm05%05%15%

All times in UTC

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