Viewing archive of Sunday, 23 November 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Regions 506 (S22E05) and
508 (S17E20) produced several minor C-class flares. No active
regions exhibited significant development during the period. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 501 (N03W57), 507 (N09E10) and 508 are capable
of producing M-class and isolated X-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Solar wind
speed gradually increased over the period to 550 km/s. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active to minor storm
conditions are possible on 24 November due to increased solar wind
speeds from a geoeffective coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Nov 178 Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 180/180/180 90 Day Mean 23 Nov 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 014/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 015/020-015/020-010/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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