Viewing archive of Monday, 27 October 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 484 (N03W54)
produced three M-class flares, including an M7.6/2n at 26/2140 UTC,
and an M2.7/2f at 27/0833 UTC that produced a CME observed on LASCO
imagery. Region 486 (S16E18) produced two major flares, an M5.0/Sf
at 27/0927 UTC and an M6.7/Sf at 27/1243 UTC. Regions 484 and 486
are stable in size and magnetic complexity. Five new regions were
numbered today: Region 488 (N09E09), Region 489 (S11E05), Region 490
(S10E25), Region 491 (S06E09), Region 492 (S22W20). Region 488 is
noteworthy for its rapid growth during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be high.
Regions 484 and 486 are expected to produce M-class and X-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active. Two partial halo CME events
associated with X-class flares on 26 October may cause geomagnetic
storming on days one and two.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| Class M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Class X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 257 Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 250/250/250 90 Day Mean 27 Oct 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 005/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 015/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 020/025-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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