Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 November 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 508
(S19W71) produced several low level B and C-class flares during the
period. This region has undergone very little change over the past
24 hours. Region 507 (N07W82) was quiescent throughout the period
and has begun to rotate off the west limb. Region 517 (S07E67) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Ace data
indicated that a weak recurrent coronal hole high speed stream
became geoeffective early in the period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels through 01 Dec. The
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to wane by 02
Dec. A return to predominantly quiet to unsettled levels is
expected on 03 Dec, with isolated active periods possible at higher
latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 153 Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 145/130/130 90 Day Mean 30 Nov 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 004/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 012/015-008/010-006/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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Power transmission for all of us. And why I believe we are better prepared than ever for major solar events 10Strong far side CME 334Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1353Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1750Filaments and prominences 595
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