Viewing archive of Monday, 1 December 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 508 (S19W84) produced several minor B and C-class flares today. This region is exiting the west limb. Region 510 (S23W29) underwent steady decay throughout the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. High latitudes experienced periods of active conditions due to a weak recurrent high speed stream coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
Class M20%15%15%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Dec 143
  Predicted   02 Dec-04 Dec  135/130/125
  90 Day Mean        01 Dec 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Dec  008/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec  008/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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