Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 December 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. A number of X-ray events occurred on the southwest limb between 0757Z and 1330Z. The most likely source of this activity is Region 508 (S19, L=283) on the west limb. A C7 flare occurred at 0948Z and was followed by a significant long duration X-ray enhancement that peaked at 1145Z. This long duration enhancement is the likely source of a greater than 10 MeV proton event. An M1 flare was also observed at 1308Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. There is a slight chance of a proton producing flare from Region 508 beyond the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The long duration X-ray enhancement produced a greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 1505Z and reached a peak flux of 86 pfu at 1730Z. Current flux levels are still above threshold level but in a slow decline. A polar cap absorption is currently in progress.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 03 - 04 December. On 05 December activity may increase to active levels due to a coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began today is expected to end on 03 December.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
Class M10%10%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Dec 139
  Predicted   03 Dec-05 Dec  130/125/120
  90 Day Mean        02 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Dec  008/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  008/010-008/010-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%35%
Minor storm05%05%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Iqaluit, NU, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NT
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK, Utqiagvik, AK
Norilsk
The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field is slightly South (-7.07nT).
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C6.18

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