Viewing archive of Monday, 15 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Only a couple of minor
C-class flares have occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active too minor storm levels. A
high-speed solar wind stream due to a coronal hole continued to
elevate activity. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at active to minor storm levels through the
remainder of the 15th. The field should subside to quiet to
unsettled levels for 16 - 18 Dec as the coronal hole rotates out of
geoeffective range.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Dec 101 Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 098/100/105 90 Day Mean 15 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 016/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 025/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 018/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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