Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
through 19 Dec.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 17 - 18 Dec. By 19
Dec, a high-speed stream should begin to impact the Earth's magnetic
field, elevating the geomagnetic field to active to minor storm
levels.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 106 Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 110/110/115 90 Day Mean 16 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 018/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 012/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 012/012-010/012-018/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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