Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 December 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 528 (N10W18) produced the largest flare of the period, a long duration C5/Sf flare at 25/0825Z. This region has shown a slight growth over the period and retains a beta-gamma magnetic structure. Region 525 (N09W49) produced several low level C-class flares early in the period. No spots were visible in this region at the time of this writing. New Region 532 (S11E02) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 528 has a slight chance of producing a low level M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The solar wind speed continues a gradual decline, ending the period below 380 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled conditions possible throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
Class M15%15%15%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Dec 139
  Predicted   26 Dec-28 Dec  140/135/135
  90 Day Mean        25 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Dec  006/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec  006/010-008/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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