Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 January 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Flare activity was sparse, although Region 543 (S16W21) produced a C2/Sf that occurred at 21/0036Z. A slight decay was seen in this region since yesterday. Region 540 (S14W35) lost the delta structure in the trailing position of spot cluster overnight. Region 542 (N10W16) underwent no significant changes. Region 544 (N08W04) decayed slightly in penumbral coverage during the period. All spotted regions retain their beta-gamma magnetic features. A 28 degree disappearing solar filament was observed on SXI and SOHO/EIT imagery near 21/1200Z. LASCO imagery is inconclusive at this time but initial C2 data indicates there is a resulting CME from this activity. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Isolated periods of major storm conditions are possible with the onset of the anticipated shock passage, due early on 22 Jan; resulting from the long duration C-flare that occurred late on 19 Jan. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 23 Jan. Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions should return by 24 Jan.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Jan 130
  Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan  130/130/125
  90 Day Mean        21 Jan 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  011/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Jan  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  030/045-015/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%30%15%
Minor storm25%15%05%
Major-severe storm15%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%35%20%
Minor storm30%20%10%
Major-severe storm15%10%01%

All times in UTC

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