Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 January 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels today. An impressive filament eruption, seen on SOHO/EIT imagery, was observed early in the period in the solar northwestern quadrant of the disk. An associated CME appears too much north-west directed to become geoeffective. A previous filament eruption (early on 21 Jan) and the associated CME that occurred in the solar southeastern quadrant may produce a weak geoeffective glancing blow. Flare activity was limited to a few low level B-class flares today. Regions 540 (S14W48) and 544 (N08W17) retain a gamma magnetic structure while Regions 542 (N10W29) and 543 (N16W34) appear to have lost their associated gamma features. Decay in penumbral coverage or magnetic structure appeared to be the theme in all the active spotted regions during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels. A shock passage was observed to pass the ACE spacecraft around 22/0100Z as the solar wind speed jumped from 475 km/s to near 700 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field held primarily north until near 22/0900Z when a sudden southward movement (which remained south thereafter for several hours) occurred and the ensuing severe storm conditions were seen at all latitudes. A 33 nT sudden impulse was recorded on the Boulder magnetometer at 22/0140Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels early in the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels. Higher latitudes may experience isolated minor storm conditions into 23 Jan due to today's shock passage. A glancing blow from the CME resulting from the filament eruption in the solar southeastern quadrant earlier on 21 Jan may produce brief minor storm conditions on 24 Jan. The remainder of the period should experience predominantly unsettled to isolated active levels.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jan 122
  Predicted   23 Jan-25 Jan  120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        22 Jan 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan  008/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jan  035/065
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  015/025-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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