Viewing archive of Friday, 16 January 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 540 (S13E28) produced a C1.2 flare at 15/2304Z. New region 542 (N11E54) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE has steadily increased to above 600 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to active. A coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 17 and 18 January and could produce isolated minor storm levels.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jan 120
  Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan  125/120/120
  90 Day Mean        16 Jan 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  009/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jan  015/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  020/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active22%22%22%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm03%03%03%
B. High Latitudes
Active22%22%22%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm03%03%03%

All times in UTC

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