Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 January 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 540 (S13E43)
produced a C3.2/1f at 15/0632 UT. New Region 541 (S09W03) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 540 is capable of C-class and isolated M-class flare
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Several hours of
southward Bz in the second half of 15 January may have been
responsible for periods of active conditions. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchrohous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active, with isolated periods of minor
storming on 17 and 18 January due to the anticipated arrival of high
speed solar wind from a geoeffective coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 119 Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 125/130/135 90 Day Mean 15 Jan 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 007/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 012/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 010/018-015/025-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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